How Russia Rebuilt Its Military Force and Surprised the West: Pentagon Insights

 

In March, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin detailed the extensive costs Russia has incurred from its invasion of Ukraine: over 315,000 troops killed or wounded, more than $211 billion spent, and 20 ships damaged or sunk in the Black Sea. Speaking at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Austin emphasized the heavy toll on Russia due to President Vladimir Putin's ambitions.

However, by April, Austin's perspective had shifted. At a news conference, he and Gen. CQ Brown, the top U.S. military officer, acknowledged Russia's unexpected recovery. Austin noted that Russia had significantly increased its production, with its defense industry closely aligned with state directives, allowing rapid ramp-ups. Gen. Brown remarked that Russia had "aggressively reconstituted its military force."

This evolving view of Russia's military capabilities suggests a faster recovery than anticipated by the U.S. Initially, experts estimated that Russia's reconstitution of its military, especially its high-end equipment, would take five to ten years. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and other officials shared this long-term outlook in early 2023.

Yet, recent observations indicate that Russia's military has rebounded to pre-invasion levels. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. military officer in Europe, highlighted that despite some gaps, Russia's overall military capacity remains significant, with intentions to further expand.

Several factors have contributed to this rapid recovery:

1. Resilient Defense Industry: Russia has nearly tripled its defense budget, spending between $130 billion and $140 billion in 2024, equivalent to a substantial share of its GDP. This increased spending has boosted salaries and attracted more workers to the defense sector, with official figures showing a 20% rise in defense industry employment during the war. This funding has also facilitated the procurement of military hardware, doubling the budget share allocated for equipment.

2. Sanction Evasion: Despite a wide range of sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, Russia has managed to reroute its supply lines through allies like China. Trade between Russia and China hit an all-time high, with Chinese companies supplying critical components for Russian weapon production.

3. Support from Allies: Other U.S. adversaries, such as North Korea and Iran, have provided direct military aid to Russia. North Korea has supplied millions of artillery rounds, and Iran has sent numerous drones, which Russia has used extensively against Ukraine.

Russia's military growth raises concerns about sustainability. The U.K.'s Adm. Tony Radakin pointed out that while Russia is making progress, it relies heavily on Soviet-era inventories and struggles to train new recruits effectively. Despite substantial casualties, Russia continues to launch offensives, raising questions about how long it can maintain such operations.

Russia's reconstitution has involved refurbishing old equipment and leveraging partnerships with countries like Belarus and North Korea. However, the sustainability of these efforts remains uncertain, with varying estimates of Russia's actual production capabilities.

As both Russia and Ukraine face challenges in sustaining their military operations, the broader implications for NATO and global security continue to evolve. While Russia's recent advancements are significant, experts like Radakin believe that it will take about a decade for Russia to pose a serious threat to NATO again.

US Military Academy Report Reveals Three Strategies to Counter Kamikaze Drones

 The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the impact of inexpensive drones causing significant damage to advanced, costly targets. This insight, combined with the effectiveness of Hamas's drone attack on Israel on October 7, has spurred the anti-drone industry to innovate technologies to combat drone threats on the battlefield.

Recently, Russia has deployed new AI-powered anti-drone systems, Abzats and Gyurza, in Ukraine. Abzats, a mobile jamming platform, uses AI to autonomously execute electronic warfare tasks, jamming frequencies utilized by UAVs. Similarly, Gyurza's AI selectively jams frequencies used by Ukrainian drones, neutralizing them. Oleg Zhukov, CEO of Geran, a Russian research company, affirmed the effectiveness of AI in electronic warfare for automatically suppressing enemy drones.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is receiving various counter-drone systems from the U.S., such as counter-drone gun trucks and laser-guided rockets. Additionally, Ukraine has acquired several CORTEX Typhon systems from Norway's Kongsberg, which detect drones via radar and shoot them down with missiles. Ukraine has also developed its own EW systems like the Brave1 and the L3Harris VAMPIRE, a laser-guided missile launcher used effectively against Iranian-produced Shahed drones.

Israel is a key player in the counter-drone sector with systems like Rafael's Drone Dome and Elbit's ReDrone, which detect drones and emit jamming signals to disrupt their operation. These systems are used by various countries to protect critical infrastructure and are considered highly effective.

The counter-drone market is growing rapidly, projected to reach $14.6 billion by 2031 from $1.3 billion in 2021, driven by key players like Lockheed Martin, Dedrone, and Raytheon Technologies. However, the cost imbalance between cheap drones and expensive countermeasures poses a significant challenge. Experts argue that the industry has yet to develop universally applicable, scalable solutions.

Brett Velicovich, CEO of Drone Experts, noted the vast number of counter-drone technologies, but no single solution guarantees complete protection against drones. The real challenge lies in creating an affordable, effective system adaptable to various situations.

There are four main categories of counter-drone systems: Tracking, Jamming, Kinetic, and Hybrid/Cyber approaches. Tracking and jamming systems locate and disrupt drone signals, while kinetic systems destroy drones with projectiles. However, these systems' effectiveness varies based on location and situation, especially against multiple drone attacks.

As drone technology advances, new vulnerabilities in sensors and radar coverage are exploited. Consequently, there is growing emphasis on building impenetrable shelters like bunkers against drone attacks.

A report from the "Modern War Institute" at the US Military Academy outlines three primary defense strategies against one-way attack drones: shooting them down, using electronic interference, or seeking shelter. Despite expensive technologies, simple measures like sandbags and concrete remain effective. Bunkers, combined with radars and concrete T-walls, provide essential protection, although overhead coverage is crucial against precise attacks.

In conclusion, counter-drone operations require a multi-layered defense combining active and passive measures. A single, simple solution is not feasible, and the ongoing conflict will continue to see evolving tactics between drones and counter-drone technologies.

Ukraine Unveils Advanced Decoy Missile ADM-160 MALD to Counter Russian Air Defenses

 As Ukraine awaits the arrival of Dutch F-16 fighter jets, a notable image has surfaced online, showing a Ukrainian MiG-29 equipped with an ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD). This photograph, taken from a low pass by a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 of the 114th Tactical Aviation Brigade, marks the first time these US-supplied decoys have been publicly seen on a MiG-29 Fulcrum.

Despite their deployment to Ukraine in 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) did not officially acknowledge the ADM-160 MALDs until May 2023, when debris from one was found in Luhansk. Observers had speculated on the launch platform, with possibilities including the MiG-29 or Su-27, both previously outfitted with American weapons like the JDAM-ER smart bombs and AGM-88 HARM missiles.

The ADM-160 MALD, an autonomous, programmable flight system, mimics US or allied aircraft to confuse enemy Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS). While lacking an explosive warhead, its role is significant in offensive operations. Trent Telenko, a former US Department of Defense official, described the MALD as a small cruise missile designed to jam radars and simulate larger aircraft, highlighting its importance to Ukraine’s arsenal.

MALDs deceive enemy air defenses by mimicking aircraft and missile radar signatures, diverting attention and resources from genuine threats. Reports suggest Ukraine uses these decoys in conjunction with long-range Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG missiles, leveraging their ability to reach targets beyond the range of these missiles.

Weighing under 300 pounds, MALDs can be programmed to replicate various aircraft and missile radar signatures, effectively deceiving Russian air defenses. In January, Russian military sources claimed to have destroyed two ADM-160 MALD missiles, highlighting their strategic deployment. The MALD is likely used first to neutralize radars, followed by attacks on land targets with Storm Shadows.

The MALD’s deployment, featuring folded wings and a GPS-enabled inertial navigation system (INS), allows pilots to adjust its course up to the point of launch. Given their cost of up to $300,000 each, Ukraine reserves these decoys for high-value missions, making their appearance rare and significant.

The image of the MiG-29 with a MALD comes amid intensified fighting between Russia and Ukraine. As Russia escalates its offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for direct NATO involvement, emphasizing the need for at least 120-130 planes to counter Russian air dominance. With the expected arrival of F-16s, Zelensky urged NATO to use the planes to target Russian missiles, even if immediate supply to Ukraine is not feasible.

Zelensky also disclosed ongoing discussions with other countries about using their armed forces to attack Russian military assets, though he reaffirmed commitments to avoid using allied weapons inside Russia. Describing the battlefield situation as "one of the most difficult," Zelensky highlighted the intense fighting in Donbas and the control regained in Kharkiv after aggressive Russian operations.

Saudi Arabia Eyes F-35 Stealth Fighters in Historic US Defense Deal Amidst China’s Rising Influence

 

Saudi Arabia is on the brink of securing a landmark defense deal with the United States, potentially involving the purchase of F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters. This development comes as the US seeks to counter China's growing influence in the Persian Gulf.

On May 20, the White House announced significant progress in negotiations between US national security officials and Saudi Arabia, edging closer to finalizing a bilateral defense agreement. John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, indicated that both nations are "closer than we’ve ever been" to reaching a near-final agreement.

While specifics of the deal remain undisclosed, it is believed that the agreement could include a formal US commitment to defend Saudi Arabia in return for Riyadh limiting or suspending arms purchases from China. An American official hinted that discussions about supplying F-35 fighter jets and other weapons to Saudi Arabia are part of the talks, though no definitive promises have been made.

Historically, a major barrier to selling F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia has been the US's obligation to maintain Israel’s military superiority in the region. This agreement ensures that US-supplied weapons to Israel remain superior to those sold to neighboring countries. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have considered alternative fighter jets like the French Dassault Rafale or the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Analysts believe that a sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia could reinforce US commitment to the region's security, ensuring Saudi dependence on US training, maintenance, logistics, and interoperability. Despite these potential benefits, maintaining Israel's air superiority remains a critical factor.

The US's interest in securing this deal is driven by concerns over China's expanding footprint in the Middle East. Since the launch of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China has increased its economic and military presence in the region. In 2022, Saudi Arabia reportedly signed $4 billion in arms deals with China, including drones and missile systems, but not high-value assets like fighter jets.

China and Saudi Arabia's military cooperation has intensified, evidenced by their joint naval drills in 2023. Additionally, China brokered a détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, highlighting its growing diplomatic influence.

US officials worry that China’s increasing influence is filling a void left by strained US-Saudi relations, worsened by incidents like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and disagreements over oil production during the Ukraine war.

Speculation is growing that the impending US-Saudi defense pact might not match a NATO-style agreement but will still involve substantial military cooperation. Reports suggest the deal could include sharing advanced technology like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, as well as supporting Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program.

The Biden administration’s negotiations also seek to address Israel and Palestinian issues, aiming for regional stability. Last year’s attempts to broker peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel failed following renewed conflict in Gaza.

While optimism surrounds the potential defense deal, challenges remain, particularly Saudi demands for Israel to cease actions against Hamas and progress towards an independent Palestinian state. Kirby noted that while an exact timeline for the deal is uncertain, talks are on a positive trajectory.

Argentina Mulls Formal Inspection of Chinese 'Space Station' Amid Growing Tensions

 Argentina's stance on its relationship with China is increasingly evident, with plans underway for a formal inspection of a Chinese "space station" situated on Argentine soil. The station, established in 2014 under an agreement with the previous administration, has raised concerns and triggered suspicions within the US government.

The Argentine government is considering a thorough inspection to evaluate potential irregularities associated with the base and ensure compliance with contractual obligations. This move coincides with Argentina's recent procurement of surplus F-16 fighter jets from Denmark, signaling a shift towards alignment with Western powers under President Javier Milei's leadership.

While China claims the station is for peaceful space exploration, concerns persist about its military implications and the lack of Argentine oversight. US officials have expressed skepticism, highlighting the need for transparency regarding China's activities at the base.

Despite past defenses of the station by Argentine administrations, questions remain about its operational control and the extent of Chinese military involvement. While some experts suggest US concerns may be overstated, the inspection reflects Argentina's efforts to assert control over its territory amid geopolitical tensions.

Thailand's Fighter Jet Decision: Boeing F-16, SAAB Gripen, or Korean FA-50?

 Thailand is considering acquiring a new fourth-generation fighter aircraft, with options including the Boeing F-16 and SAAB Gripen. Now, the South Korean contractor Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has thrown its hat into the ring, proposing its FA-50 light fighter aircraft to the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF).

KAI's proposal comes in response to an informal request for proposals (RFP) from the RTAF, aiming to replace aging Lockheed Martin F-16A/Bs. While the FA-50 offers advanced capabilities at a lower cost and with timely delivery, the RTAF had initially shown interest in fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II aircraft.

The FA-50, an export success for KAI, boasts features such as Tactical Data Link and Precision Guided Munitions. It has been actively deployed by the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) since 2013 and has garnered significant orders from countries like Poland and Malaysia.

Despite initial interest in the F-35, the RTAF aims to bolster its air power with potent fighter jets. The competition now includes the F-16 Block 70/72 Viper and SAAB Gripen-E, both offering advanced capabilities in their generation.

With the entry of the FA-50 into the contest, the RTAF faces a three-way decision, potentially reshaping its evaluation process and strategic considerations.

U.S. Navy to Commission SSN New Jersey: A Strategic Boost Amidst Rising Tensions

On April 6, the U.S. Navy will commission the SSN New Jersey, a Virginia-class fast-attack submarine, marking a significant addition to its submarine fleet. The commissioning ceremony will take place at Naval Weapons Station Earle (NWSE) in Monmouth County, New Jersey.

Commissioner Susan M. Kiley, liaison to the Office on Veteran Services, noted that the USS New Jersey, also known as Pre-Commission Unit 796, is the third naval vessel named after the state of New Jersey. The submarine, officially designated as SSN 796, comes with a hefty price tag of approximately $3.5 billion.

The Virginia-class submarines, designed to remain operational until the 2070s, boast advanced weapons systems and nuclear-powered capabilities, enabling extended operations without refueling. A simulated wargame conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted the effectiveness of submarines like the Virginia class in countering potential threats, particularly from China.

With the USS New Jersey's deployment, the U.S. Navy aims to enhance its strategic capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, where tensions are on the rise. Equipped with sophisticated weaponry and stealth capabilities, the Virginia-class submarines remain among the deadliest assets in the Navy's arsenal.

However, challenges lie ahead in meeting production targets, given the strain on naval shipyards and commitments under international partnerships like AUKUS. Despite these challenges, the U.S. remains committed to bolstering its submarine fleet to maintain strategic superiority.

As the USS New Jersey joins the fleet, it underscores the Navy's ongoing efforts to modernize its capabilities and adapt to evolving security threats worldwide.