Ukraine Targets Russian Air Defenses in Preparation for F-16 Fighter Jet Arrival

 

Ukrainian forces are ramping up efforts to degrade Russian air defense systems in anticipation of receiving F-16 fighter jets later this year, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The June 12 report from the US-based think tank highlights Ukraine's strategic campaign to weaken Russian defenses, potentially allowing for more effective use of manned fixed-wing aircraft in the ongoing conflict.

The assessment details recent Ukrainian military actions targeting critical Russian air defense installations. On the night of June 11-12, Ukrainian forces successfully struck an S-300 air defense battery and two S-400 batteries near the occupied areas of Belbek and Sevastopol in Crimea. Geolocated images released on June 12 confirm the damage, including the destruction of an S-400 radar system south of occupied Dzhankoi and damaged S-300 assets north of occupied Yevpatoria. These strikes support earlier reports from Ukraine’s General Staff about successful attacks on Russian air defense assets.

Kostiantyn Nemichev, founder of the Kraken Regiment of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), confirmed on June 12 that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS to destroy four Russian S-300 systems in Belgorod Oblast. Although Nemichev did not specify the exact dates, this action caused Russia to redeploy air defense assets from Crimea to Belgorod Oblast in early June 2024, reducing air defense coverage around Crimea.

Additionally, DIU spokesperson Andrii Yusov corrected earlier reports about drone strikes on the Akhtubinsk air base in Astrakhan Oblast, clarifying on June 12 that two Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft were damaged between June 7-8, not just one as initially reported. The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are crucial for Russia’s efforts to restrict Ukrainian air operations and support its offensive activities in Ukraine.

The ISW assessment suggests these Ukrainian strikes are part of a broader strategy to weaken Russian air defenses before the planned delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, expected to start in small quantities during the summer and fall of 2024. The report states, “Ukrainian forces may seek to actively degrade Russian air defenses before Ukraine receives a significant number of aircraft in order to set conditions for Ukraine’s future use of manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas.”

ISW believes that successful weakening of Russian air defenses, combined with sufficient fighter jets and trained pilots, could enable Ukraine to integrate fixed-wing aircraft more effectively to support ground forces.

Challenges for Ukraine Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged to supply Ukraine with over 80 US-made F-16 fighter jets to strengthen its defense against Russian attacks. The addition of these F-16s will significantly enhance Ukraine’s air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities. However, the war has shown that no single platform, even one as capable as the F-16, can single-handedly secure victory for Ukraine. The critical factor will be how these aircraft are integrated into a broader combat strategy.

Experts have noted that Ukrainian pilots who are not well-versed in proper tactics for using these advanced fighters will not fully benefit from the capabilities of a fourth-generation aircraft. Retired US Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert explained that the US approach to deploying new weapons involves extensive education, training, and combat exercises to ensure proficiency. While Ukrainian pilots are being trained to operate these fighters, achieving the same level of proficiency as American aviators in the near term will be nearly impossible.

Moreover, the issue of pilot training has recently come to the forefront. Western officials have indicated that Ukraine will continue to face material and training constraints, likely preventing it from utilizing fixed-wing airpower on a large scale in 2024. Both Ukrainian and Western officials have stated that it will take considerable time to adequately train enough Ukrainian pilots and equip Ukrainian forces with the approximately 150 F-16s needed to achieve air superiority to support ground operations.

Yet, Ukrainian officials have outlined their plans to use F-16s and other fixed-wing aircraft to limit Russian aviation activities. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash mentioned that just two F-16 squadrons, roughly 18 aircraft, could significantly impact the situation in Ukrainian airspace.

The ISW noted, “These restraints should not fundamentally constrain Ukraine’s ability to leverage airpower at scale in the long run, however, should Ukraine’s Western partners lean into supporting Ukraine’s air domain and deep strike capabilities.”

US Military’s V-22 Osprey Fleet to Resume Full Operations by Mid-2025

 

The U.S. military's fleet of over 400 V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft is not expected to return to full flight operations until at least mid-2025, as stated by a Navy admiral during a House Oversight subcommittee meeting. Vice Adm. Carl Chebi, head of Naval Air Systems Command, which oversees Ospreys for the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, mentioned that a review assessing manning, training, and equipment adequacy will continue for another six to nine months. He assured lawmakers that findings from this comprehensive review will guide actions to ensure safe flight operations.

The Osprey fleet began a gradual return to service with flight restrictions in early March, three months after being grounded due to a fatal Air Force CV-22 crash off Japan's coast. This crash, which killed all eight airmen on board, led to a suspension of operations in early December.

The V-22 Osprey's unique capability to operate both as an airplane and a helicopter makes it ideal for aircraft carrier landings and special operations in challenging environments. The Marine Corps operates the majority of these aircraft, with the Air Force and Navy having around 50 and 30, respectively. Some Marine Ospreys have already resumed activity; for instance, ten aircraft from Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 268 were sent to Hawaii for a training exercise in Australia, and others are being used in Sweden for Exercise Baltic Operations.

Despite the partial resumption, the Navy's CMV-22 fleet remains grounded for carrier support missions. Current restrictions prevent Ospreys from flying more than 30 minutes from a potential emergency landing site. Meanwhile, crews at Cannon Air Force Base in New Mexico are preparing to restore their operational capabilities, and other squadrons are also nearing readiness.

An investigation into the Air Force's CV-22 crash on November 29 is almost complete, with family briefings expected soon. The crash was attributed to a material failure previously unseen in the Osprey fleet.

Since their introduction over two decades ago, Ospreys have experienced several fatal accidents, including four incidents since March 2022, resulting in 20 service members' deaths. These issues led to fleet-wide groundings in 2022 and 2023 due to premature wear in the input quill assembly, which connects the engine to the proprotor gearbox.

Vice Adm. Chebi and Gary Kurtz, the program executive officer for anti-submarine, assault, and special mission programs, informed lawmakers that testing for a redesigned clutch is imminent. They anticipate the new clutch will be fielded by mid-2025.

First Images of US Navy's Orca XLUUV with Payload Module Revealed

 

For the first time, images have emerged showing the U.S. Navy's Orca Extra Large Uncrewed Undersea Vehicle (XLUUV) equipped with its payload section. This significant development was highlighted in a LinkedIn post by the former Commodore of UUVRON-1, marking the first time the Orca has been seen with its payload insert. The new images underscore the substantial size of the Orca.

Boeing delivered the initial Orca XLUUV to the U.S. Navy in December 2023, and it is currently undergoing rigorous testing. Five additional units are slated for delivery this year.

According to H I Sutton, an OSINT and submarine expert contributing to Naval News, the insertable payload module offers versatile mission capabilities. It includes large hatches potentially designed for mine-laying missions, and configurations that could allow for the launch and recovery of smaller underwater vehicles.

Sutton estimates on his blog that the Orca measures approximately 25.9 meters in length with the payload module, compared to 15.5 meters without it.

About Orca XLUUV:

The Orca XLUUV is an Extra Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle developed as part of the U.S. Navy’s UUV Family of Systems to meet a Joint Emergent Operational Need. The current model is about 85 feet (26 meters) long, has a displacement of around 85 tons, and utilizes a diesel-electric propulsion system providing a range of 6,000 nautical miles.

The vehicle features a modular payload bay measuring approximately 400 inches (10 meters) in length with an 8-ton capacity. This bay has defined interfaces for current and future payloads, such as the Hammerhead.

US Navy's Efforts:

The US Navy’s Unmanned Undersea Vehicles Squadron One (UUVRON-1) is developing and documenting tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for the Orca XLUUV. According to the Navy’s budget documents, facilities at Naval Base Ventura County are being updated for CONUS XLUUV testing, training, and work-ups.

The Navy is also working on establishing infrastructure to support XLUUV basing, fleet integration, and forward operational capability overseas. This includes support platforms, trailers, maintenance equipment, and ashore hardware.

Upon completing government testing in FY25, the US Navy might exercise three production options for additional vehicles in FY26, transitioning to an Acquisition Category (ACAT) Program.

Russian Kazan Submarine Conducts Military Drills Near US Waters Amid Rising Tensions

The Russian missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the nuclear-powered Yasen-class cruise missile submarine Kazan recently conducted military exercises near Cuba, signaling to the West amid escalating tensions. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on June 11 that these vessels were practicing the use of high-precision missile weapons in the Atlantic Ocean.

According to the Ministry, the tactical strike group, comprising the Kazan submarine and the Admiral Gorshkov frigate from the Northern Fleet, performed exercises targeting marine enemies over 600 kilometers away using computer simulations.

These drills coincided with Russia starting the second phase of tactical nuclear exercises with Belarus. Russian state media emphasized these maneuvers as a demonstration of Russia's global influence, countering Western views of its waning power. Reports indicate that the Russian flotilla was monitored by US and allied forces as it moved towards the Caribbean, at times nearing 30-90 miles from Florida.

The Russian vessels were welcomed in Cuba on June 12 for naval exercises set to last until June 17, emphasizing the historical friendship between the two nations. Despite the nuclear capabilities of these ships, Cuba clarified that they would not be armed with nuclear weapons during their stay. The US has stated that these exercises pose no direct threat.

This is not the first instance of Russian-Cuban military collaboration, with annual drills occurring from 2013 to 2020. Analysts note that the presence of the Kazan submarine, known for its stealth, could increase tensions despite US assurances. The Yasen-class submarines, including Kazan, are among the quietest and most sophisticated in the world, enhancing Russia’s defensive and deterrence capabilities.

Kazan, a Yasen-class submarine, is praised for its advanced technology and quiet operation, rivaling the US's modern submarine fleet. Designed by the Malakhit Marine Engineering Bureau and built by Sevmash Shipyard, the 13,800-ton vessel features a quieter nuclear reactor, additional sensors, and new quieting technologies. It is capable of carrying a range of missiles, including hypersonic ones, and can target enemy submarines, ships, ports, and naval bases.

US officials have acknowledged the increasing deployment of these submarines near US waters. Gen. Glen VanHerc of USNORTHCOM noted that Russia's Yasen-class submarines have been operating more frequently in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, posing a growing threat.

While the current exercises with Cuba are downplayed by US officials, military analysts express concerns about potential electronic warfare and intelligence gathering by hostile submarines. The deployment of Yasen-class submarines like Kazan in strategic locations could pose significant risks to the security of the US and its allies in Europe. 

NATO Fighter Pilots Hone Dogfighting Skills Amid Rising Tensions with Russia

Last week, over three dozen fighter pilots from nine NATO countries gathered at Ramstein Air Base in Germany for a unique U.S.-led exercise focused on sharpening air-to-air combat skills and enhancing coordination among allies. The "Ramstein 1v1" event saw pilots from the U.S., U.K., Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, and Germany engage in basic fighter maneuvers, commonly known as dogfighting. This high-stakes exercise required pilots to make rapid decisions and demonstrate quick reflexes, utilizing a variety of aircraft, including F-35A Lightning IIs, F-16 Fighting Falcons, Eurofighter Typhoons, French Rafales, F/A-18 Hornets, and A-4 Skyhawks.

This event marked a first for the U.S. Air Forces in Europe, transforming Ramstein, typically a military airlift hub, into a fighter base for the day. Lt. Col. Michael Loringer, USAFE’s chief of weapons and tactics, emphasized the importance of such exercises for building fundamental combat skills, reaction time, physical stamina, and situational awareness. He noted that one-on-one dogfighting is critical for building trust in both a pilot's abilities and their aircraft.

The exercise took place as Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine, in the third year of the conflict. This context has heightened the focus of the U.S. military and its allies on improving aerial combat skills to prepare for potential conflicts with advanced air forces from Russia and China.

In line with these preparations, the Air Force revived the "William Tell" aerial shooter competition last September after a nearly two-decade hiatus due to high operational demands in the Middle East. Air Combat Command has indicated plans for a 2025 William Tell competition, though dates are not yet confirmed. Additionally, NATO pilots will apply their refined offensive and defensive maneuvers at the upcoming Ramstein Flag exercise in Greece at the end of 2024, according to USAFE Commander Gen. James Hecker.

Despite the preparations, Gen. Hecker expressed a desire to avoid conflict with Russia, stressing the importance of having capable forces to deter aggression. The recent exercise at Ramstein also highlighted cooperation and mutual support among NATO allies. U.S. airmen from RAF Lakenheath in England supported the Royal Norwegian Air Force's F-35s, while the 86th Airlift Wing at Ramstein managed installation support and flight operations.

The exercise emphasized readiness and trust-building, culminating in a day of flying and a piano burning ceremony to honor fallen fighter pilots, a tradition dating back to World War II. Lt. Col. Loringer underscored the significance of trust and teamwork, noting that successful military operations often depend on these critical elements. 

Indian Air Force Bolsters Eastern Airbases Amid Rising Tensions with China

 In response to increasing tensions with China, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is upgrading infrastructure at 20 eastern airbases, enhancing capabilities to handle China-centric operations. This includes constructing hardened aircraft shelters, munitions centers, and additional runways to accommodate increased civilian traffic and ensure operational continuity in case of runway damage during conflict.

A notable upgrade is the construction of a second runway at the strategic Leh airbase in Ladakh, a region of frequent India-China military clashes. Leh airbase is essential for maintaining operations along the Line of Actual Control with China and Siachen. The base supports night operations for fighters and transport aircraft, including Rafales, MiG-29s, Sukhoi-30s, and Apaches, and is vital for transporting troops and supplies during harsh winters when road access is limited.

The IAF’s infrastructure development extends to other key bases. Satellite imagery from April 2024 revealed significant enhancements at the Chabua Air Base, near the China border. Upgrades include additional taxiways, hardened shelters for fighter aircraft, underground munitions storage, and improved taxiways for drones, ensuring sustained high-tempo operations if tensions escalate.

In Ladakh, a new 2.7-km runway at Nyoma airbase, located 23 kilometers from the China border, is set for completion in October 2024. The new runway, at an elevation of 13,700 feet, will enhance IAF operations. Support infrastructure, such as hangars, air traffic control buildings, and hard standing areas, will be ready by the end of 2025. Nyoma airstrip, operational during the 1962 India-China war, was reactivated in 2009 and has since supported various military aircraft, including the C-130J Super Hercules.

China has been ramping up its air assets along the LAC since the 2020 Galwan standoff. Recent satellite images show the deployment of China’s Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon 5th-generation fighter jets at Shigatse Air Base, only 150 kilometers from the LAC. The base also hosts J-10 aircraft and KJ-500 Airborne early warning and control aircraft, posing a strategic challenge to India's Rafale-equipped Hasimara Air Base in West Bengal.

The Shigatse base, with its new 3,000-meter auxiliary runway and multiple helipads, is strategically located along the central China-India border, close to the Doklam area, site of a 2017 standoff. The oblique angle of the new runway complicates enemy strikes aiming to disable both runways simultaneously.

China’s infrastructure expansion along the LAC since 2020, which includes new airbases, missile sites, roads, bridges, bunkers, and underground facilities, has significantly enhanced its military capabilities. The Hotan airbase in Xinjiang now features a new runway, additional tarmacs, hangars, and upgraded air defenses.

According to the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China has upgraded dozens of airports and heliports in Tibet and Xinjiang, improving last-mile connectivity and enabling a wider range of military operations. Open-source data identifies 37 newly constructed or upgraded air facilities in these regions since 2017, with at least 22 being military or dual-use. The accelerated development in 2020, including the construction and upgrading of 14 air facilities, fills previous gaps along the Indian border, providing the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) new bases to project airpower against India.

Pakistan's Potential Nuclear Submarine Program Challenges Indian Naval Strategy

 Pakistan is considering enhancing its naval capabilities by equipping its under-construction Chinese submarines with nuclear-tipped missiles, potentially altering the strategic balance for the Indian Navy.

Delays due to fiscal constraints had postponed the acquisition of S-26 Hangor class submarines from China. Initially expected by the end of 2023, the first of these Yuan-class submarines was launched in May 2024.

Once eight of these submarines, equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), join the Pakistan Navy, they will significantly boost the country’s offensive sea denial strategy, which emphasizes the use of submarines and missile-carrying maritime patrol aircraft. Expected to be operational by the late 2020s and early 2030s, the addition will increase the number of AIP-equipped submarines in the Pakistan Navy to 11.

Recent reports suggest that the Hangor class may not be a purely conventional attack submarine. Retired Pakistani naval officers have discussed on state television that Islamabad is aiming for an “assured” second-strike capability.

According to a Quwa report, Vice Admiral Ahmed Saeed and Rear Admiral Saleem Akhtar, both retired officials, talked about acquiring Hangor-class submarines from China. Saeed suggested these submarines would be a "hybrid," balancing conventional attack capabilities with nuclear potential.

While retrofitting the Hangor class with nuclear reactors is unlikely, Pakistan could deploy Tactical Nuclear Warheads (TNWs) on these submarines. Building nuclear-powered submarines is costly and complex, as noted by retired Commodore Anil Jai Singh, making it improbable even with Chinese assistance.

Pakistan has been developing TNWs since its first nuclear test in 1998. These smaller, portable weapons are designed for battlefield use rather than as strategic deterrents. The Hangor-class submarines will likely use a variant of the Babur-3 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), first tested in 2018 with a range of 450 km. The Babur-3 is a critical component of Pakistan’s “credible second-strike capability,” according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Vice Admiral Saeed emphasized that while the Hangor class is not a dedicated nuclear platform, the Pakistan Navy seeks to fire nuclear weapons from the sea, potentially requiring just one or two dedicated submarines. However, the Hangor class would primarily manage conventional roles and only strategic duties part-time.

Commodore Singh expressed doubts about the effectiveness of a single nuclear-armed submarine in the Pakistan Navy. He suggested that China might lease one to Pakistan in the future, but this remains uncertain.

Indian Navy's Concerns

While Pakistan cannot independently design and develop a nuclear-powered submarine, it may be exploring the possibility as part of a long-term strategy. China's support in arming Pakistan with such a submarine would challenge the Indian Navy’s dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China has already been supplying submarines to Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar, creating a competitive underwater environment in the IOR.

Retired Captain Anurag Bisen highlighted that a Pakistani submarine armed with TNWs would constrain the Indian Navy's deployment of its aircraft carriers until the submarine is accounted for.

India has been adopting a flexible deterrence approach against China and Pakistan. In March, New Delhi successfully tested the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V, featuring Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, enhancing the survivability of its nuclear missiles.

Despite the potential threat from TNWs, Commodore Singh remains optimistic, questioning whether Pakistan has considered India's likely retaliation, as stated in its nuclear doctrine. Using TNWs is complicated and risky, making their actual deployment a significant gamble for Pakistan.