South Korea Weighs Arming Ukraine Amid Growing Russia-North Korea Military Ties

 

Triggered by the recent defense agreement between North Korea and Russia, South Korea is considering the possibility of arming Ukraine, according to a report from Yonhap News on June 20. An unnamed official indicated that this reevaluation follows the commitment between North Korean and Russian leaders to support each other in case of conflict.

Though not officially confirmed by the South Korean government, these reports follow Seoul's condemnation of the strategic partnership deal signed by North Korea and Russia. South Korea's government stated that the partnership violated UN sanctions, emphasizing that any cooperation that enhances North Korea's military capabilities breaches UN Security Council resolutions and is subject to international monitoring and sanctions.

In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised South Korea for not directly supplying arms to Ukraine, which was perceived as an olive branch to Seoul, dissatisfied with Moscow's growing military ties with Pyongyang.

Historically, South Korea has been hesitant to send arms to Ukraine due to its policy of not arming countries involved in active conflicts. Despite pressure from NATO allies, Seoul has maintained its stance, although it has indirectly supplied 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States.

Reports suggest that the two Koreas are engaging in a proxy war, with South Korea indirectly aiding Ukraine and North Korea allegedly supplying weapons to Russia. Chris Park from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that this situation effectively places the Koreas in opposition through their support of different sides in the Ukraine conflict.

The new defense cooperation agreements between North Korea and Russia, described as the most significant since the Cold War, have escalated tensions with South Korea. Pyongyang has recently launched provocations, including sending waste-filled balloons and soldiers crossing the border, prompting South Korea to fire warning shots.

Concerns are rising in Seoul about North Korea potentially receiving Russian support for its missile program in return for its military backing. The strategic agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guarantees mutual assistance in case of aggression.

Although it is unclear if the new agreement offers the same level of protection as the Cold War-era pact, it marks a significant step towards a closer relationship between the two nations. The agreement obliges each party to use all available means to assist the other in case of an attack, in compliance with national laws and Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which upholds the right to self-defense.

Both leaders have characterized the deal as a breakthrough, enhancing cooperation in security, trade, investment, culture, and humanitarianism. Kim Jong Un declared the agreement as the "strongest ever treaty," signaling a solid alliance and full support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Putin referred to it as a significant advancement in their bilateral relations.

ROK Navy Strengthens Maritime Defense with Arrival of New P-8A Poseidon Aircraft

 

On June 19th, the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy welcomed the first three P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft at their Naval Air Command in Pohang. These aircraft, renowned as the world's premier "submarine hunters," are part of an acquisition plan initiated in September 2018, with Boeing producing six units by 2023. After completion of operational training overseas, the aircraft were delivered to South Korea.

To celebrate the arrival, a synchronized flight was conducted with a P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, symbolizing the safe delivery of the P-8A and the commitment to robustly defend Korean waters from the air. P-3 pilots welcomed the P-8A pilots over operational waters, who in turn expressed their dedication to achieving top combat readiness and executing their maritime defense mission through future force integration.

The P-8A Poseidon is the latest maritime patrol aircraft capable of missions such as anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASuW), and general maritime patrol operations. Compared to the ROK Navy’s P-3 aircraft, the P-8A offers a higher maximum speed and a longer operational range. It is equipped with advanced surveillance and reconnaissance tools, including a long-range X-band radar for detecting sea targets hundreds of kilometers away, digital electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) equipment for high-resolution imaging and target detection within tens of kilometers, as well as electronic warfare systems.

Additionally, the P-8A carries air-to-surface missiles for striking maritime targets with precision and torpedoes for engaging submarines. It can deploy over 120 sonobuoys for detecting, identifying, and tracking enemy submarine signals.

The introduction of the P-8A will significantly enhance the ROK Navy's aerial anti-submarine warfare capabilities against North Korean submarines, improve rapid response capabilities in future maritime operations, and extend surveillance over Korean waters. Operating the same type of aircraft as the U.S. Navy will also facilitate seamless joint maritime aviation operations, boosting interoperability.

Three more P-8As are set to arrive on June 30th, with a delivery ceremony planned at the Naval Air Command on July 4. Following a year of force integration training and capability assessments, these aircraft are expected to be operational by mid-2025.

Marines' Landing Ship Delayed and Over Budget: Navy Faces Costly Challenges

 The development of a crucial vessel for the Marine Corps, intended for potential conflicts in island regions such as the Pacific, is experiencing significant delays and cost overruns. Originally planned for delivery in 2023, the Navy's landing ship medium program will now award its design and construction contract in fiscal year 2025, two years later than expected, according to the Government Accountability Office’s Annual Weapons Systems Assessment.

Initiated in 2020 to procure 35 stern landing vessels, the project aims to create ships that blend commercial design elements to reduce detectability and enhance maneuverability for Marine littoral regiments. Currently, testing is being conducted using a modified commercial watercraft capable of direct beach landings.

Assistant Commandant Gen. Christopher Mahoney explained the ship's role: "It is a shore-to-shore logistics connector to transport heavy items that can't be flown in or brought by larger ships, allowing maneuvering and sustaining positions."

Key features of the landing ship medium include:

• Length: 200 to 400 feet
• Draft: 12 feet
• Crew: Approximately 70 sailors
• Capacity: 50 Marines and 648 short tons of equipment
• Deck cargo space: 8,000 square feet
• Speed: 14 knots with a cruising range of 3,500 nautical miles
• Beach landing capability: Roll-on/roll-off for 1:40 grade beaches
• Helicopter pad
• Armament: Two 30 mm guns and six .50-caliber guns
• Service life: 20 years

The first of three planned regiments became operational in 2023. However, the Navy is devising a bridging strategy as it continues to experiment with modified commercial vessels. These interim solutions require significant modifications, each costing around $115 million.

A Congressional Research Services report updated in April suggested that Congress could consider adapting the Army's existing fleet of logistics support vessels to meet some Marine requirements. The Army, with over 100 such vessels, has shifted its logistics focus to the Pacific, aligning with Marine needs.

The Navy plans to award the construction contract in March 2025, with the first ship expected by January 2029. Operational testing is slated for completion by July 2030, with initial capability projected for December 2034.

The program's costs have escalated significantly. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the initial 18-ship program to cost between $6.2 billion and $7.8 billion, or $340 million to $430 million per ship. This is nearly triple the original estimate of $2.6 billion, or $150 million per ship. Should the Navy procure the full fleet of 35 landing ships, the total cost could reach between $11.9 billion and $15 billion.

Congress Approves Israel F-15 Sale Amid Controversy Over U.S. Bomb Shipment Hold

 The White House has persuaded two influential Democrats to lift their hold on an $18 billion sale of F-15 fighter jets to Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has criticized the Biden administration for delaying the shipment of thousands of heavy bombs to Israel.

Representative Gregory Meeks of New York and Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, leading Democrats on foreign affairs panels, confirmed they have ended their months-long blockade on the sale of 50 Boeing-made F-15 fighter jets, Raytheon-made Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and Boeing-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions kits.

Netanyahu released a video in English criticizing President Joe Biden for the pause on the delivery of about 3,500 air-to-ground munitions, including 500- and 2,000-pound bombs, since April. Netanyahu highlighted this issue during a recent meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“It is inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunition to Israel,” Netanyahu said, emphasizing that Israel is America's closest ally in the fight against Iran and other common enemies. Secretary Blinken assured him that efforts are ongoing to resolve these delays.

The Washington Post reported that Meeks and Cardin lifted their hold on the F-15 sale, which is not expected for delivery until the end of the decade, due to pressure from the Biden administration and pro-Israel advocates. Additionally, the Biden administration is considering lifting its own hold on the 3,500 heavy bombs intended for immediate delivery to Israel.

A National Security Council spokesperson told Defense News that discussions with Israel about the munitions release are ongoing but provided no further updates. Blinken stated that the U.S. continues to review the heavy bomb delivery but noted that other military supplies are proceeding as usual.

Biden paused the heavy bomb shipment in May ahead of Israel’s Rafah offensive in Gaza, citing concerns over civilian casualties in a conflict that has caused significant loss of life and brought the region to the brink of famine. The last U.S. president to withhold weapons shipments to Israel was Ronald Reagan in 1982, following civilian casualties in Lebanon.

Meeks, who initially blocked the F-15 sale due to concerns about civilian casualties and humanitarian aid restrictions, reversed his stance after discussions with the White House and National Security Council. He emphasized the need for Israel to improve humanitarian efforts and limit civilian casualties.

Despite Meeks lifting the hold weeks ago, the State Department has not formally notified Congress of the F-15 sale or a separate $1 billion sale of tank ammunition and tactical vehicles. Such notifications would trigger a congressional review period where critics could seek to block the sales.

Congress has also introduced legislation to counter Biden’s bomb shipment pause and restrict the president’s authority to delay future arms transfers to Israel. The House’s fiscal 2025 defense spending bill includes a provision to prevent the Pentagon from withholding defense articles or services for Israel and mandates the transfer of withheld weapons within 15 days.

The Appropriations Committee advanced this bill, which will be voted on by the full House soon. Additionally, some Democrats joined Republicans to pass a bill reversing Biden’s bomb hold, though the Democratic-controlled Senate has not held a vote due to a White House veto threat.

Congress has invited Netanyahu to address a joint session on July 24, with key leaders from both parties supporting the invitation. Senators Lindsey Graham and Cory Booker also convened a private meeting with CEOs to urge continued arms sales to Israel. Palantir CEO Alex Karp and Booz Allen Hamilton CEO Horacio Rozanski were reportedly among the attendees.

Armenia Shifts Defense Strategy: Exploring Barak 8 Missile System Amidst Diversification Efforts

 

Armenia is gradually moving away from its dependence on Russian arms suppliers, adopting more favorable domestic and international policies. Notably, Armenia is showing interest in the Barak 8 surface-to-air missile system, a joint development between India and Israel, also known as LR-SAM or MR-SAM.

The Barak 8 missile system is a collaborative effort between India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). It is designed to provide a comprehensive air defense solution against various aerial threats. The system includes multifunctional surveillance and threat alert radar, a command and control system, and mobile launchers, ensuring robust defense capabilities.

The Barak 8 missile measures approximately 4.5 meters in length and 0.225 meters in diameter, with a weight of around 275 kilograms. Its lightweight design allows deployment on various platforms, including naval ships and land-based launchers. The missile's advanced features include an active radar seeker for precise target tracking and engagement, a two-way data link for mid-course guidance updates, and a thrust vector control system that enhances agility and maneuverability.

The Barak 8 system consists of several key components and subsystems: the missile itself, a vertical launch system (VLS) for rapid deployment, the EL/M-2248 MF-STAR radar for target detection and tracking, and a command and control system for mission planning and execution. This integration ensures a comprehensive and effective air defense capability.

With an operational range of approximately 70-100 kilometers, the Barak 8 missile can engage threats at significant distances, providing wide-area coverage and enhancing the defensive perimeter of protected assets. It is effective against various aerial threats, including aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles, making it a versatile tool for modern air defense.

Armenia is seeking more modern and effective equivalents to its current surface-to-air missile systems, such as the Russian-developed S-300 system, which defends against aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. The Armenian military also operates the highly mobile Tor-M2KM system, capable of engaging a variety of aerial threats, and the 9K33 Osa system, which provides short-range air defense against aircraft and helicopters.

Armenia has shown interest in the Akash-NG, an advanced variant of the Indian Akash missile system. However, the Indian government has not yet approved the production of the Akash-NG, meaning it might take at least three years for Armenia to acquire it. Given these circumstances, Armenia is currently favoring the MR-SAM due to its immediate availability and established production capabilities.

US Hypersonic Weapon Program Delayed to 2025 as China and Russia Forge Ahead

 The United States' endeavor to bridge the technological gap with China and Russia in the hypersonic weapons race has hit another roadblock, with the deployment of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon System (LRHWS) now delayed until fiscal year 2025.

A report released by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) on June 17 reveals that the US Army will not be able to field its first LRHW battery until 2025 due to complications with the launcher and launch sequence. The LRHW, also known as 'Dark Eagle,' is a trailer-launched missile system with an estimated range of over 1,700 miles and a top speed of Mach 17, or 3.6 miles per second.

Despite the setback, the Department of Defense (DoD) is committed to resolving these issues and plans to test the missile and launcher together by the end of fiscal year 2024. The GAO report indicates that the Army's initial goal to field its first LRHW battery by fiscal year 2023 was missed due to integration challenges. Based on current schedules, the complete battery won't be fielded until 2025.

Even with a successful launch, the GAO warns of potential further delays due to concerns about missile performance during flight tests. Officials have indicated that performance issues could necessitate additional postponements. Once a fielding decision is made, the Army aims to have the eight missiles required for a battery ready within 11 months.

This delay is significant given the escalating hypersonic arms race. In September 2023, the Army acknowledged missing its original target of fielding the first battery by the end of fiscal 2023 due to launcher problems. Doug Bush, the head of Army acquisition, noted that a new plan was being developed, but this too has faced challenges.

Since 2021, the LRHW program has experienced multiple test failures, attributed to missile malfunctions and launcher issues. The GAO reported the cancellation of two tests in 2023. Meanwhile, China and Russia have successfully deployed several hypersonic weapons, with the US struggling to keep pace. For example, the US Air Force canceled the AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) program after several failed tests. Although the USAF is focusing on the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM), its deployment is still distant.

In June 2022, the Navy faced a setback when an Intermediate-Range Conventional Prompt Strike (IRCPS) missile test experienced an in-flight anomaly. Despite swift corrective actions, the fielding schedule has slipped. The Navy is now developing the Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare (HALO) program, expected to be ready by 2029.

China, the US's primary adversary, has advanced significantly in hypersonic capabilities, unveiling the DF-27 and an air-launched variant of the YJ-21 in the past year. Russia has already deployed the Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic weapons in combat. Even nations like Iran and North Korea are alleged to have operational hypersonic weapons, highlighting the urgency for the US to resolve its technological challenges.

The GAO's recent report paints a concerning picture as the 'Dark Eagle' was intended to be the US Army's first hypersonic weapon. Army spokeswoman Ellen Lovett emphasized that for operational security, test timings cannot be disclosed in advance. The continuous delays due to technical issues hamper the US's progress in the hypersonic domain.

The LRHW, part of a collaboration between the Army and Navy, includes four trailer-based launchers, each with two canister missiles transported on M870 trailers, and a command vehicle overseeing operations. The Dark Eagle's design features an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle launched by a rocket booster to achieve hypersonic speeds.

Lockheed Martin, tasked with integrating the Army’s hypersonic capabilities, is under a $756 million contract to enhance the LRHW. With rival states achieving significant advancements, it is critical for the US to overcome these technical hurdles and deploy its hypersonic weapons soon.

China to Expand Nuclear Arsenal by 90 Warheads by End of 2024

 China is set to significantly increase its nuclear warhead count by at least 90 by the end of 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI, which has been tracking global armaments for many years, reports that China's nuclear arsenal has grown from 410 warheads in 2022 to approximately 500 currently. This expansion highlights China’s rapid efforts to enhance its military power, although it still lags behind the US and Russia.

Globally, there are 3,904 nuclear warheads ready for launch, with an additional 5,681 in storage, totaling an alarming 9,585 warheads. Among smaller nuclear powers, India holds 172 warheads, Pakistan has 170, North Korea has about 50, and Israel maintains around 90. North Korea, with sufficient nuclear material, could potentially increase its arsenal to 90 warheads.

The transparency of nuclear arsenals has decreased since the US and Russia paused the New START Treaty in 2023, which previously aimed to limit these arsenals. This has contributed to an arms race, with nations enhancing their nuclear capabilities and developing new launchers and ballistic missile submarines. The ongoing investigations into Iran’s nuclear development and escalating international tensions further exacerbate the situation.

Russia and the United States currently possess the largest number of nuclear warheads, with 5,580 and 5,244 respectively. They account for nearly 90% of the world's total nuclear arsenal. Of these, 3,904 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 from the previous year. This includes 1,710 from Russia and 1,770 from the United States. China is estimated to have 24 warheads deployed on missiles.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlights that while the total number of nuclear warheads globally continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are dismantled, there is an annual increase in the number of operational warheads. This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming years, raising significant concerns.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has emphasized ongoing discussions about possibly deploying additional nuclear weapons within the alliance. He underscores the need to demonstrate NATO’s nuclear capabilities to potential adversaries. Stoltenberg notes that China, Russia, and North Korea are the main challenges for NATO and points out China’s significant nuclear arsenal expansion. He forecasts that by 2030, China's nuclear stockpile could reach about 80% of the size of the US and Russian arsenals.

The production of nuclear warheads involves the extraction and refinement of fissile material, primarily uranium-235 and plutonium-239. Uranium-235 is enriched from natural uranium, while plutonium-239 is produced in nuclear reactors. The fissile material is then fashioned into a core or 'pit' surrounded by a tamper and encased in a high-explosive shell designed to compress the core to a supercritical state when detonated.

The warhead’s triggering mechanism involves conventional explosives arranged to ensure symmetrical compression of the fissile core. Advanced designs may also include a neutron initiator to ensure a rapid and sustained chain reaction. The warhead is then integrated into a delivery system, such as a missile or bomb, with rigorous testing and quality control to ensure reliability and safety. Modern warheads include sophisticated electronics for arming, fuzing, and firing, as well as safety mechanisms to prevent accidental detonation.

Throughout the production process, strict security and non-proliferation measures are enforced to prevent unauthorized use or dissemination of nuclear technology, with oversight by organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).