Pentagon Clarifies Sevastopol Beach Not Targeted in Ukrainian Attack on Crimea

 

Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby clarified that the Ukrainian attack on Crimea on June 23 was not intended to target Sevastopol’s beach, where civilians were caught in the crossfire. According to BulgarianMilitary.com, Ukraine launched an assault on the Crimean Peninsula that day. The Russian Federation reported over 100 injuries and five fatalities, including two children, due to the incident.

While initial reports suggested that Ukraine used five ATACMS missiles and drones, there is no conclusive evidence that ATACMS missiles were actually deployed. Debris found at the scene appears to be from a 9M330 air defense missile of Soviet/Russian origin, but the authenticity of these images is unverified.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that air defense systems intercepted four US-supplied ATACMS missiles, but debris from a fifth missile caused civilian casualties. RIA Novosti's inquiries about the ammunition type used were deflected to Ukrainian authorities for confirmation.

Kirby noted that the Ukrainian military independently selects its targets. He explained that a Ukrainian missile aimed at a military site in Crimea was intercepted by a Russian missile, with shrapnel falling on a nearby beach and injuring civilians. Video evidence suggests multiple shrapnel pieces rather than a single fragment, which contrasts with Russian claims of cluster submunitions from an ATACMS missile.

US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested on social media that the civilian casualties were caused by Ukrainian cluster munitions, criticizing US military aid to Ukraine. She emphasized the importance of defending US borders instead of involving in foreign conflicts.

The Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that the responsibility for the attack lies with Washington, which supplied the weapons, and the Kyiv regime, from whose territory the strike was launched. They reported that four ATACMS missiles were intercepted by air defenses, but the fifth missile’s mid-air explosion caused civilian casualties.

The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) is a US-developed surface-to-surface missile designed for precise deep-strike attacks against critical targets. It is launched from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The missile, approximately 13 feet long and weighing around 3,690 pounds, is capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 3 and has a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The ATACMS can be equipped with unitary warheads for precision strikes or cluster munitions for area denial and anti-personnel purposes. The Soviet/Russian S-300 series, specifically the S-300V system, is capable of intercepting such missiles, featuring advanced radar systems and interceptor missiles to engage various aerial threats.

US and Pakistan Conclude Successful Falcon Talon 2024 Exercise Amid Shifting Regional Alliances

 The US Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) recently completed Falcon Talon 2024, a bilateral exercise held from June 1 to June 11. Hosted annually by the PAF, this event aims to strengthen the critical relationship between the two countries. On June 25, the US Air Force shared details and images of the exercise, emphasizing its focus on tactical counter-terrorism, air-to-ground weapons employment, and expert exchanges.

Airmen from the US Central Command's area were deployed to Pakistan, with personnel and cargo transported by the Air Mobility Command’s C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. The exercise featured the participation of US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons from Aviano Air Base’s 510th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, alongside the PAF’s F-16s and JF-17 Thunder jets.

Photos revealed US and Pakistani aircraft parked at an undisclosed location in Pakistan during the exercise on June 6, 2024. The event underscored the importance of the US-Pakistan relationship and the mutual goal of regional security. According to the US Air Force, Falcon Talon 2024 focused on tactical execution, logistics support, and planning integration.

US Airmen collaborated closely with their Pakistani counterparts, participating in hands-on training and knowledge exchange in areas such as firefighting, explosive ordnance disposal, medical support, and joint terminal attack control. Airmen from the 378th Expeditionary Civil Engineer Squadron Fire Department worked with the Pakistan Air Force Fire Department on various drills and policy creation exercises. The exercise concluded with a friendly firefighter competition to test the newly acquired skills.

Master Sgt. Jonathan Campos of the US Air Force highlighted the positive impact of these exchanges, noting the strong personal relationships and sense of community developed through such activities. Lt. Col. Nicholas Gardner, Chief of Operations for Falcon Talon 2024, emphasized the enduring partnership between the US and Pakistan, critical for regional security since their mutual defense agreement in 1954.

Despite the historical partnership, recent US administrations have deprioritized relations with Pakistan. The Trump administration halted military cooperation, and under the Biden administration, relations have further declined, particularly following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In contrast, the US has strengthened its defense ties with India to counter China's influence and isolate Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

In April 2023, B-1B Lancers from Ellsworth Air Force Base participated in Cope India 2023 for the first time, and in May 2024, the Indian Air Force's Rafale jets participated in the US multinational exercise Red Flag 24 in Alaska. India has also emerged as a strategic partner, receiving advanced technology and military equipment, with further collaborations planned in the space domain under the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).

Russia's Submarine Blunder: Kazan's Sonar Signature Compromised Near Cuba

 After the Russian Yasen-class submarine, Kazan, made an appearance in Cuba, initial excitement about its proximity to the US turned into regret among Russian experts. According to the Russian site Top War, this move is seen as a significant blunder, with Americans already mocking Russia. The site criticizes the decision, noting that sending the submarine into the American anti-submarine zone compromised its stealth advantage.

In Cuba, crowds gathered to see the Kazan up close, but this exposure meant the US and NATO could now detect the submarine more easily. The Atlantic is heavily monitored by American and NATO forces, using advanced detection systems in key areas like the Barents and Norwegian Seas, the Faroe-Icelandic Gap, and the Davis Strait. These systems, combined with sophisticated patrol aviation, make it nearly impossible for a Russian submarine to enter the Atlantic undetected.

Submarines are primarily detected through passive noise direction finding and active sonar methods. Passive systems pick up on low-frequency sounds, while active sonar involves sending out a signal that bounces off the submarine and returns to the receiver. Modern ships enhance detection capabilities with low-frequency emitters and towed sonar stations, making it hard for submarines to remain hidden.

However, detecting a submarine with another submarine is more complex, as Russian submarines have very low noise levels in stealth mode. Identifying an underwater target’s unique acoustic signature can help isolate it from background noise, crucial for long-distance detection.

Previously, the US lacked detailed acoustic data on the Kazan. But after its exposure near Cuba, advanced computer systems recorded its acoustic signature, allowing the US to identify and track it more efficiently. This shift in detection methods significantly disadvantages Russia in terms of submarine stealth capabilities.

The potential implications are severe. The US could launch a nuclear strike against Russia or China with minimal retaliation risk if they can neutralize Russian strategic submarines. This was demonstrated in June 2023, showing the importance of disabling Russia’s submarine fleet to prevent a retaliatory strike. Russian submarines often operate under the ice, complicating detection, but a detailed sonar signature would allow American submarines to locate and target them from a safe distance, even in challenging environments.

U.S. Navy Prepares Compact Agile Interceptor for Hypersonic Missile Defense Tests

 The U.S. Navy is gearing up for flight tests of the Compact Agile Interceptor (CAI), a new surface-launched missile designed to enhance missile defense capabilities, especially against hypersonic threats. This compact interceptor aims to increase the number of missiles that can be packed into the Mark 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells, addressing concerns over missile inventory size and VLS cell capacity. As the production of SM-6 and RIM-162 ESSM Block II missiles ramps up into the late 2020s, the Navy is focusing on optimizing space and performance.

The CAI is designed to fit multiple small diameter missiles into one Mark 41 VLS cell while maintaining the ability to intercept complex hypersonic raids. This addition will complement the existing SM-6 Dual I/II and SM-6 Block IB missiles, which are also capable of countering hypersonic threats.

A leading candidate for the CAI program is Lockheed Martin’s Patriot Advanced Capability 3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE). This missile, with a diameter of roughly 11.4 inches, has already been tested in a virtualized Aegis environment and has seen action in Ukraine against hypersonic missiles like the Kh-47M2 ‘Kinzhal’ and 3M22 ‘Zircon’. Despite its smaller diameter, Lockheed Martin aims to integrate it into the Navy's systems without major modifications, ruling out dual-packing for now.

According to U.S. Navy budget documents for FY2025, the propulsion concept for the CAI has been selected, and plans are underway to procure 2-3 flight test units this year. Various propulsion options, including highly loaded grain propellants and solid fuel ramjets, are being considered for the program.

While the PAC-3 MSE currently does not meet the dual-packing requirement, modifications to the control surfaces could allow it to fit two missiles per VLS cell, doubling the magazine capacity. Lockheed Martin has expressed interest in investing in the current missile capabilities rather than redesigning it extensively.

The exact propulsion system for the CAI remains undisclosed, but flight tests are scheduled to begin in FY2025, starting in October of this year.

China’s Norinco Eyes Stake in Brazil's Top Missile Developer Avibras

 China North Industries Group Corporation, commonly known as Norinco, is reportedly in talks to acquire a 49% stake in Avibras, Brazil’s leading missile developer renowned for its modular multi-caliber MLRS ASTROS. This move comes after Australia’s DefendTex withdrew from the acquisition due to a lack of political and financial support from its government. DefendTex's offer of 130 million US dollars fell short of Avibras' 200 million US dollar valuation.

The Australian government, a close ally of the United States with access to advanced American missile technologies such as HIMARS, PrSM, NASAMS, NSM, and Tomahawk, showed minimal interest in the Brazilian company. DefendTex also cited the Brazilian government’s ban on military exports for the war in Ukraine as a reason for the failed negotiations, aiming to integrate Avibras products into Western programs to support military supplies for Ukraine.

Norinco's potential acquisition of Avibras could pose significant risks. This move might trigger a U.S. embargo on the export and use of American defense products in Brazil due to sanctions imposed by the Biden administration in 2021. The U.S. Government has warned Brazilian authorities that Norinco’s involvement could jeopardize national security, with sanctions prohibiting the integration of U.S. defense equipment with Norinco-related systems.

These restrictions could heavily impact Avibras’ products, including its flagship ASTROS MLRS, which rely on American technology like communication systems from L3Harris Corporation. Avibras also collaborates with seven other U.S. companies in its supply chain.

It remains unclear whether Norinco intends to invest in Avibras' long-term, less competitive programs or simply leverage the Brazilian brand’s reputation to market its own products.

US and Canadian Navies Conduct Bilateral Operations in South China Sea Amidst Tensions with China

 From June 18 to June 20, the United States Navy and the Royal Canadian Navy executed bilateral operations in the South China Sea, emphasizing their strong dedication to regional security and collaboration amid ongoing tensions between China and the Philippines.

The operations included the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114) and the Royal Canadian Navy’s Halifax-class frigate HMCS Montreal (FFH 336). These activities encompassed personnel transfers, flight operations, and replenishment at sea, supported by the Lewis-and-Clark class dry cargo ship USNS Wally Schirra (T-AKE 8).

"Close coordination with our allies and partners is paramount to success in the region," stated Capt. Justin Harts, Commander of Destroyer Squadron 15. "Demonstrating regional cooperation with the Royal Canadian Navy is key to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific."

Cmdr. Isaia Infante, commanding officer of the USS Ralph Johnson, underscored the importance of joint exercises, highlighting the opportunity to work closely with allies and partners and reinforce the already strong relationship with the Royal Canadian Navy. He affirmed the crew's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific while supporting the rules-based international order.

The US Navy noted that such bilateral engagements are vital for training, exercising, and developing tactical interoperability across allied navies, enhancing collective readiness to address regional contingencies.

This operation followed a historic joint patrol involving Canada, Japan, and the US with the Philippines in the South China Sea, part of a multilateral maritime cooperation activity (MMCA) aimed at preserving freedom of navigation and overflight. Canada's increasing involvement in the region comes amid reports of aggressive maneuvers by Chinese ships targeting routine resupply missions to a vessel grounded by Manila on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines has accused China of violating its sovereignty, citing the illegal presence and actions of Chinese vessels within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Canada's recent joint drill with the US Navy could further strain its already fragile relations with China. Since 2018, Canada has intermittently deployed military ships, aircraft, and personnel to conduct surveillance operations to identify suspected maritime sanctions violations, particularly ship-to-ship transfer of fuel and other commodities banned by UN Security Council resolutions.

In June 2022, Canada accused Chinese fighter pilots of dangerously intercepting a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft since December 2021. Reports indicated that Chinese jets intercepted the Canadian aircraft about 60 times, with nearly 20 encounters deemed 'dangerous.' This incident sparked a diplomatic dispute between the two nations. China has consistently criticized Canada for its participation in overflights and freedom of navigation operations alongside the United States, accusing Canadian military aircraft of conducting provocative reconnaissance activities under the guise of implementing UN Security Council resolutions. China argued these activities were unauthorized and increased the risk of mishaps or conflict.

Relations deteriorated further in 2023 when Canada accused China of election interference, leading to reciprocal expulsions of diplomats. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed that China attempted to influence the 2019 and 2021 elections, though these efforts were unsuccessful. In military assessments, China and Russia were identified as Canada’s primary adversaries, highlighting the need for a robust response to hostile actions.

India’s Struggle to Modernize its Fighter Fleet: The Challenges and Choices Ahead

 India's plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), a highly anticipated defense deal, remains uncertain. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, well below the authorized 42, and needs more to face its two major adversaries.

The IAF has ordered nearly 200 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1 and Mk1A variants and has committed to 200 LCA Mk2s. However, nine years after the first IAF LCA squadrons were formed, only about 40 LCA aircraft are in service. Even with increased production to 24 aircraft per year, it will take time to meet the required numbers. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still over a decade away, and the aging MiG 21s are still in use. The Jaguars and Mirage 2000 fleets need to retire by around 2030. Despite the push for self-reliance, India will need to induct the 114 MRFA to bridge the gap.

The initial Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) process was limited to 36 Rafale jets due to technical reasons. The IAF has specified the operational requirements for these 114 aircraft.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence highlighted delays in delivering the initial 40 LCAs to the IAF and suggested exploring the purchase of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

MRFA Competition

India issued a Request for Information (RFI) in April 2018 for the 114 MRFA. Responses from contenders were received later in 2018. The Indian Navy was also asked to consider new fighter jets alongside this program. The Navy needs a twin-engine fighter, focusing on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale-M, likely opting for 26 Rafale-Ms.

Eight aircraft are competing for the IAF’s MRFA: Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Boeing F-15EX Eagle II, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21 (a variant of the F-16V customized for India), Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F, and Sukhoi Su-35.

The next step involves the Defence Acquisition Council's (DAC) Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) and issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP). Even if the RFP is issued today, it could take over five years for the aircraft to be inducted. India's security establishment must make an early decision on the 114 aircraft import.

Big Ticket Assessment

Russia has proposed two aircraft: the MiG-35, which did not qualify in the earlier MMRCA selection, and the new Su-35. The Su-35, part of the Su-27/30 family, is not a viable option due to India's already significant fleet of similar aircraft and planned upgrades. The Russian industry is also preoccupied with domestic demands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

If the Indian Navy selects the Rafale-M, the interest in the F/A-18 Super Hornet will decline. India has invested in the Rafale infrastructure and modifications, suggesting that acquiring more Rafale jets, potentially making 140 (114+26) in India, is logical.

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F and Eurofighter Typhoon are strong contenders. The Gripen, with its GE 414 engine, and Eurofighter, with its extensive global presence, offer good options, although geopolitical factors and technology transfer levels will influence the decision.

US Influence in India's Aircraft Ecosystem

India has already integrated several US aircraft, including the Boeing P8I, Lockheed C-130J, and others. The upcoming purchase of General Atomics MQ-9B Predator Drones further solidifies US involvement. Evaluating the F-15EX and F-21 (an advanced F-16 variant) is essential.

The F-15EX, with its impressive payload and advanced features, is a heavy, costly option, adding complexity to India’s diverse fleet. The F-21, an advanced F-16, offers in-country production potential but faces public perception challenges due to Pakistan's use of F-16s.

Conclusion

India must make a one-time purchase of 114 aircraft, ideally the same type for the IAF and Navy, with significant technology transfer and in-country production. The US is eager to integrate into India’s fighter aircraft ecosystem, reflecting geopolitical closeness. Ideally, the US should offer the F-35, addressing technical barriers like the S-400 linkage.

Balancing India's aircraft mix to reduce dependence on Russian and Western suppliers while increasing indigenous production is crucial for long-term strategic autonomy.