China's Expanding 'Carrier Killer' Missiles: A Strategic Threat to US Naval Dominance

 In the midst of global tensions, China's military posturing towards Taiwan intensifies, paralleled by Russia's war against Ukraine. Recently, China's "Joint Sword – 2024A" exercises followed closely after Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's President, whom Beijing labels a "separatist."

During these drills, warships patrolled near Taiwan's coast, signaling potential invasion threats that could disrupt the technology supply chain, trigger economic crises, and escalate to a US-China conflict. Beijing justified the drills as a response to Lai's assertion that Taiwan and China are "not subordinate to each other." Taiwan's defense forces tracked 49 Chinese aircraft, 19 naval ships, and 7 coast guard vessels near its waters, indicating the growing threat. Most of these ships were frigates and corvettes with lighter weapon loads.

As tensions rise, the US is preparing for potential conflict. A delegation of US lawmakers has shown support for Taiwan in response to China's extensive military drills. In April 2024, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, a former US Navy intelligence leader, warned that China's military is preparing for an invasion or blockade of Taiwan within the next decade.

China insists that nations cannot maintain official relations with both China and Taiwan, leading Taiwan to have formal diplomatic ties with only a few countries. The US, while being Taiwan's most crucial ally, does not officially recognize Taiwan, adhering to the one-China principle.

Comparison of Naval Capabilities

As of 2024, China has the world's second-largest navy by total displacement, following the US Navy, and the largest number of active service ships. A report from the US Congressional Research Service highlights that China's navy is the largest in East Asia and surpassed the US Navy in battle force ships between 2015 and 2020. Currently, China has over 370 battle force platforms, including major surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries. By 2025, this force is projected to grow to 395 ships, reaching 435 by 2030.

China operates two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, with the third and most advanced, the Fujian, starting sea trials in May 2024. In contrast, the US Navy had 292 battle force ships as of January 29, 2024, with a projected fleet of 290 ships by FY2030.

In a potential naval conflict, China would need to reposition military assets to its eastern coast and prepare for an invasion, while using its anti-ship firepower to keep US warships at bay. China's arsenal of anti-ship missiles (ASMs) is central to its strategy to deny US forces access to the Western Pacific.

China’s Anti-Ship Missiles (ASM)

China has significantly expanded its anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), sometimes called "carrier killers." Key missiles in China’s arsenal include the YJ-12, YJ-18, YJ-83, DF-21, and DF-26.

YJ-83: A modern addition to China's anti-ship arsenal, deployed on surface ships and multirole aircraft. It’s a smaller, shorter-range missile typically housed in box launchers on Chinese frigates and corvettes.

YJ-18: A cruise missile for anti-ship and land-attack roles, derived from the Russian 3M-54E "Klub" missile, and the only widely deployed ASM that can be launched from vertical launch cells. It’s installed on large surface combatants and submarines.

YJ-12: Compatible with various platforms, including bombers and coastal launchers, the YJ-12 can engage warships from long distances.

DF-26: An Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) that provides high speed and long range, earning the "carrier killer" nickname. It can target beyond aircraft carriers.

DF-21D: A medium-range ballistic missile operational since 2012, designed specifically to target ships at sea, reaching speeds up to Mach 10 during the terminal phase.

China's anti-ship missile capabilities aim to deny US warships access to the region, leveraging Taiwan's proximity to offset American naval dominance.

Taiwan's Strategic Position

As tensions over Taiwan escalate, its strategic position within the "first island chain" becomes crucial. Controlling this link would bolster China's influence in the Western Pacific, challenge US dominance, and give Beijing control over Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing industry. Given Taiwan's role in maritime trade routes and its semiconductor industry, neither the US nor its allies can afford to let Taiwan fall into Beijing's orbit.

China's Rapid Naval Expansion: Five Type 052DM Destroyers Outfitted Simultaneously

In a recent sighting at the Dalian Shipyard, keen observers captured footage of five Type 052DM destroyers being outfitted simultaneously. Experts note that while simultaneous outfitting is standard, this feat is comparable to the U.S. military’s two-year destroyer and shipbuilding plan. Remarkably, China achieves this in just one dock. These destroyers will undergo sea trials and develop combat capabilities before beginning military missions, likely by mid-next year.

The Type 052DM destroyer represents the "final form" of the 052D series, distinct from the "extended version" 052DL. The most notable upgrade in the 052DM is the replacement of the older 364 rapid response radar with an active phased array radar in the X-band. Additionally, the ship's internal electrical systems and anti-submarine sonar have been upgraded. For a destroyer with a full load displacement of 7,500 tons, such upgrades indicate its capacity for additional equipment is nearly maxed out, posing challenges for future enhancements.

Despite these limitations, the 052D destroyer boasts impressive combat capabilities. The 052D project faced significant technical challenges during the 2011 “0.55 million-ton large-scale propulsion project,” aimed at addressing external pressures. This effort led to the integration of modern equipment from the 055 destroyer with the 052C hull platform. Consequently, missiles from the 052D series can now be launched from 055 destroyers, thanks to shared main radar and vertical launch systems. For instance, the YJ-21 anti-ship missile can now be deployed from both the Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers.

Derived from the technological advancements of the 055 destroyer, the 052D's technical prowess is ranked just below the esteemed 055 on a global scale by Chinese experts, despite the U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke Flight III having a displacement advantage. In terms of air defense and anti-missile systems, the 052D is limited by its fewer vertical launch units, impacting its firepower sustainability. However, in other operational areas, the 052D matches the Arleigh Burke Flight III, including anti-missile defenses and ground attacks. Chinese officials have previously highlighted the 052D’s upgraded functionality, which now includes ground-attack cruise missiles.

Estimates suggest that the fleet of 052D destroyers could ultimately exceed 50 units, complementing the 055 destroyers in a "strong and weak match" strategy. The robust shipbuilding orders for the 052D are driven by its significant cost advantages, both in production and operational costs, without compromising on performance compared to international warships. Using a diesel engine for economical speeds significantly reduces costs compared to fully fuel-powered vessels.

The 052D destroyer is tasked with medium-to-high-level military missions, while missions like anti-piracy and routine cruises are typically assigned to the 054A frigates and offshore vessels, offering great mission flexibility. 

Airbus Unveils Stealthy Wingman Drone Concept to Transform Aerial Combat Dynamics

 

European aerospace giant Airbus has introduced its innovative fighter-like stealth Wingman drone concept, set to be showcased at the International Aerospace Exhibition ILA in Berlin.

Airbus announced on June 3 that it will reveal the Wingman concept at ILA Berlin on June 5. This stealth drone is designed to revolutionize aerial combat by acting as an unmanned counterpart to manned fighter jets like the Eurofighter, providing support and protection.

The Wingman concept resembles a traditional wingman in military aviation but operates as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Controlled by pilots in manned aircraft, the Wingman is engineered for high-risk missions, enhancing the capabilities of manned jets while reducing risks to human pilots. The design features low observability, a range of armaments, advanced sensors, connectivity, and teaming solutions.

Airbus describes the 1:1 model of the Wingman, to be displayed at ILA from June 5 to 9, as similar to a "show car" used in the automotive industry for design exercises. This model serves as a foundation to shape the design requirements for future generations of the Wingman.

The Wingman is designed with sharply angled wings, leading-edge extensions, a distinctive chine line along the fuselage, and canards to improve maneuverability. Airbus envisions it performing tasks such as engaging targets with precision-guided munitions, jamming, and reconnaissance. It may also include ventral payload bays for various missions.

Control of missions will remain with pilots in manned aircraft, who will make final decisions while benefiting from the protection and reduced risk offered by delegating tasks to the UAV.

Michael Schoellhorn, CEO of Airbus Defence and Space, emphasized the Wingman as a viable solution for the German Air Force, which needs unmanned aircraft to support manned fighter missions before the Future Combat Air System becomes operational in 2040. Airbus aims to develop a cost-effective and high-performing solution to enhance the German fighter fleet by the 2030s.

Aviation journalist Gareth Jennings noted that the Wingman concept builds on Airbus's Low Observable UAV Testbed (LOUT) program, initiated in 2019 to explore stealth design principles and advanced technologies.

The unveiling of the Wingman concept marks a significant step in Airbus's efforts to deploy UAVs alongside manned fighter jets. German officials have already proposed an unmanned Electronic Combat Wingman (ECW) to work with the crewed Typhoon EK aircraft, replacing the aging Tornado ECR jets used for electronic warfare.

Meanwhile, Germany and France are collaborating on the Future Combat Air System, with Airbus playing a key role in developing a 6th-generation fighter for operational deployment in 2040, potentially integrating a loyal wingman UAV.

US Navy Tests Air-Launched SM-6 Missile on F/A-18 Super Hornet Amid Rising Threats

 

The U.S. Navy’s Air Test and Evaluation Squadron VX-9 “Vampires” has been observed testing the RIM-174 ERAM (SM-6) missile on one of their F/A-18 Super Hornets once again. Stationed at Naval Air Weapons Station (NAWS) China Lake, VX-9 operates a diverse fleet including F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, and F-35C Lightning IIs.

Previously, in 2021, a VX-31 F/A-18F was seen carrying an inert SM-6 without its MK72 first-stage booster, leading to speculation about the missile's potential as a new long-range air-to-air weapon. This idea was reinforced by Raytheon’s classified Long-Range Engagement Weapon (LREW) program for the U.S. Air Force and Navy, which aims to develop advanced long-range air-to-air missile technology. The LREW program incorporates proven components from existing systems with new technologies to enhance performance, involving system design validation, wind tunnel testing, engineering assessments, and kill chain investigations.

Although the LREW project transitioned entirely to the U.S. Air Force in 2019, with Raytheon receiving a contract in 2022, the U.S. Navy has continued its efforts to integrate a long-range air-to-air weapon for its fighter fleet. Recently, a VX-9 Super Hornet was spotted carrying an inert SM-6 missile, as captured by aviation photographer @StinkPlove on social media platform X. The orange and gray SM-6 was mounted on the Super Hornet’s number 7 pylon.

This push for air-launched SM-6 capability aligns with the development of new long-range air-to-air weapons by the PLA Air Force, such as the PL-15 and PL-17, which surpass the range of current U.S. Navy air-to-air weapons. The surface-to-air version of the SM-6 achieves ranges of 130 nautical miles (240 km), with estimates suggesting potential ranges up to 250 nautical miles (463 km) for an air-launched variant. This enhancement would significantly extend the reach of a Carrier Air Wing (CAW), enabling it to engage distant targets more effectively.

The SM-6 utilizes an X-band receiver for guidance, making it compatible with the AN/APG-79 radar on the F/A-18E/F and the AN/APG-81 AESA radar on the F-35C. In operational scenarios, forward-based F-35C fighters could guide the missiles to their targets, while Super Hornets, launching from safer distances, could provide the firepower. The Super Hornets can also transmit fire control data via the Navy’s Naval Integrated Fire Control–Counter Air (NIFC-CA) datalink system.

An air-launched SM-6 capability would add another high-speed, long-range strike option for surface and land targets, enhancing the versatility of the U.S. Navy’s CAWs. This addition to the weapons portfolio would offer more flexibility for time-sensitive land attacks and maritime strikes, expanding the operational capabilities of fighter aircraft.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Visits Cambodia Amid Rising Concerns Over China's Influence at Ream Naval Base

 On June 4, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Cambodia for a significant visit aimed at countering China’s expanding influence in the region. This visit occurs amid Washington’s growing concerns about Beijing’s activities at the Ream Naval Base, a strategically located facility on the Gulf of Thailand's coast in Sihanoukville province.

This is Austin’s second visit to Cambodia as Secretary of Defense and marks the first direct bilateral meeting between a US defense chief and Cambodia’s Defense Minister, Tea Seiha. Austin underscored the visit's importance with a post on social media platform X, confirming his arrival in Phnom Penh.

During his visit, Austin met with former Prime Minister Hun Sen, now the Senate president, and discussed strategies to strengthen defense ties with Prime Minister Hun Manet. Both Austin and Hun Manet share a West Point background, fostering hopes of enhanced US-Cambodia cooperation.

A US defense official expressed optimism that Prime Minister Hun Manet, educated at West Point and New York University, might favor closer ties with Washington than his father did. The visit, described as pragmatic, was not expected to yield immediate major agreements but aimed to address past challenges in US-Cambodia relations.

Washington hopes that a new generation of Cambodian leaders, including Hun Manet, will lead to closer cooperation with the US. This was reflected in a Pentagon statement highlighting opportunities to strengthen bilateral defense relations in support of regional peace and security. Key topics included resuming military training exchanges on disaster assistance and UN Peacekeeping, training on de-mining and unexploded ordnance clearance, and access to US military education programs.

Growing Concerns Over Beijing’s Influence

US officials are increasingly alarmed by China’s development of the Ream Naval Base, fearing it might become a new outpost for Beijing near the contested South China Sea. Previously, Ream was a hub for joint US-Cambodia naval training. However, Cambodia demolished a US-built facility there in October 2020, and China began a funded upgrade in June 2022.

US concerns escalated last month when China sent two warships to Cambodia and East Timor, with a stay extended until mid-June. Since December 2023, two Chinese warships, likely corvettes or frigates, have been stationed at Ream, further intensifying US worries.

Cambodian officials have repeatedly denied that the facility would be used by China as a naval base, citing their constitution, which prohibits foreign military bases. Chinese authorities have described the base as an "aid project" to enhance Cambodia’s naval capabilities, dismissing concerns as "hype" with "ulterior motives."

China’s relationship with Cambodia has strengthened through significant investments and high-level interactions. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested billions in Cambodia’s infrastructure, including highways and bridges. Recently, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet announced a Chinese-backed $1.7 billion canal project set to begin in August, despite tensions with Vietnam.

Military cooperation between Cambodia and China has also increased, highlighted by their largest annual military exercise, the Golden Dragon Exercises, involving several Chinese warships and hundreds of personnel.

Indian Air Force Su-30MKI Crashes in Maharashtra: Pilots Survive, Wreckage Scatters Over 500 Meters

 

The Indian Air Force (IAF) confirmed a crash involving a Sukhoi Su-30MKI aircraft in Maharashtra’s Nashik district. This aircraft is the only Sukhoi combat model operated by the IAF. Local reports, based on eyewitness accounts, indicated that the wreckage was dispersed over a 500-meter radius. Both pilots, Wing Commander Bokil and his co-pilot Biswas, successfully ejected and sustained only minor injuries. They are currently being treated at the HAL hospital. The aircraft caught fire post-crash, but the flames were quickly extinguished.

IAF sources revealed that the aircraft was undergoing post-overhaul flight testing under the management of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). After this phase, it was to be returned to the IAF for operational duties. The IAF operates around 260 Su-30 MKI fighters, developed by Russia's Sukhoi and built under license by HAL. This multi-role fighter is well-regarded for its versatility, advanced avionics, and combat capabilities.

The IAF is currently upgrading its Su-30 MKI fleet to enhance operational effectiveness. Key upgrades include the integration of the BrahMos-A supersonic cruise missile, significantly boosting the aircraft’s strike power. Additionally, the avionics suite is being modernized with advanced radar systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and improved navigation and communication systems to keep the aircraft technologically advanced. Other upgrades aim to improve the overall performance and maintainability of the aircraft, focusing on engines, airframe, and critical systems to extend service life and reliability.

Sukhoi Su-30MKI Overview:

The Su-30MKI, a multi-role air superiority fighter developed by Russia’s Sukhoi and built by India’s HAL, is a variant specifically tailored for the IAF. It measures 21.9 meters in length, 14.7 meters in wingspan, and 6.4 meters in height, with a maximum takeoff weight of approximately 38,800 kilograms. Its propulsion system comprises two AL-31FP turbofan engines with thrust vectoring nozzles, each generating 27,557 pounds-force. The aircraft can achieve speeds up to Mach 2 and has a range of 3,000 kilometers without refueling. The thrust vectoring capability enhances its agility in combat.

The Su-30MKI features advanced technical characteristics, including a digital fly-by-wire system, canards, and thrust vectoring nozzles for improved maneuverability. It has a maximum operational ceiling of 17,300 meters and a rate of climb of 230 meters per second. The sophisticated avionics suite includes the N011M Bars radar, a passive electronically scanned array radar capable of tracking multiple targets simultaneously, along with a head-up display, multifunctional displays, and a digital map generator, providing comprehensive situational awareness.

Equipped with a variety of systems for multirole capabilities, the Su-30MKI includes an electronic warfare suite, an infrared search and track system, and a laser rangefinder and target designator for precision targeting. Its armament includes R-77 and R-73 air-to-air missiles, Kh-29 and Kh-59 air-to-ground missiles, and guided bombs like the KAB-500, as well as a 30 mm GSh-30-1 cannon for close-range combat.

AI's Rapid Rise in Warfare Sparks Concerns: Experts Warn of Uncontrolled Arms Race

 

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in warfare, particularly accelerated by recent conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza, is leading to significant concerns among experts. Autonomous decision-making is rapidly reshaping modern combat scenarios, with AI-driven weapons systems capable of making critical decisions, including target selection and engagement, at unprecedented speeds.

Natasha Bajema, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, warned of the potential dangers of escalating conflict speeds driven by autonomous systems. She highlighted the challenge of maintaining human oversight in increasingly automated battles, comparing the situation to the race for nuclear weapons in the past.

Despite longstanding calls for restrictions on AI in military applications, the appetite for autonomy in weapons has grown significantly, overshadowing previous concerns. However, efforts to address these challenges persist. Austria, for instance, has spearheaded international initiatives to establish regulations for AI-enabled weapons, hosting a global conference on autonomous weapon systems with broad international participation.

While there is growing interest, particularly from the Global South, in regulating AI technology in warfare, significant obstacles remain, including the reluctance of major global powers to commit to multilateral agreements. Zachary Kallenborn, lead researcher at Looking Glass USA, emphasized the technological limitations of AI, particularly in machine vision, which remains error-prone and susceptible to misinterpretation.

The disposable nature of drones and the potential for unintended consequences pose additional challenges. Intercepting autonomous systems may lead to unpredictable responses, complicating the already complex landscape of modern warfare. Natasha Bajema highlighted the "terminator problem," where states feel compelled to pursue AI-driven weapons for security reasons, further complicating efforts to regulate the technology.

Ambassador Alexander Kmentt acknowledged the difficulty of achieving universal consensus on AI regulation but emphasized the importance of collaboration among interested parties. However, he expressed pessimism about the prospects of success given the geopolitical challenges and the reluctance of certain countries to engage in multilateral arms control efforts.

With the target date of 2026 set by the United Nations for establishing clear prohibitions and restrictions on autonomous weapon systems, there is a sense of urgency among advocates for AI nonproliferation. Failure to make significant progress by then could close the window for preventive action, further complicating efforts to regulate AI in warfare.