In the midst of global tensions, China's military posturing towards Taiwan intensifies, paralleled by Russia's war against Ukraine. Recently, China's "Joint Sword – 2024A" exercises followed closely after Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's President, whom Beijing labels a "separatist."
During these drills, warships patrolled near Taiwan's coast, signaling potential invasion threats that could disrupt the technology supply chain, trigger economic crises, and escalate to a US-China conflict. Beijing justified the drills as a response to Lai's assertion that Taiwan and China are "not subordinate to each other." Taiwan's defense forces tracked 49 Chinese aircraft, 19 naval ships, and 7 coast guard vessels near its waters, indicating the growing threat. Most of these ships were frigates and corvettes with lighter weapon loads.
As tensions rise, the US is preparing for potential conflict. A delegation of US lawmakers has shown support for Taiwan in response to China's extensive military drills. In April 2024, Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, a former US Navy intelligence leader, warned that China's military is preparing for an invasion or blockade of Taiwan within the next decade.
China insists that nations cannot maintain official relations with both China and Taiwan, leading Taiwan to have formal diplomatic ties with only a few countries. The US, while being Taiwan's most crucial ally, does not officially recognize Taiwan, adhering to the one-China principle.
Comparison of Naval Capabilities
As of 2024, China has the world's second-largest navy by total displacement, following the US Navy, and the largest number of active service ships. A report from the US Congressional Research Service highlights that China's navy is the largest in East Asia and surpassed the US Navy in battle force ships between 2015 and 2020. Currently, China has over 370 battle force platforms, including major surface combatants, submarines, amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries. By 2025, this force is projected to grow to 395 ships, reaching 435 by 2030.
China operates two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, with the third and most advanced, the Fujian, starting sea trials in May 2024. In contrast, the US Navy had 292 battle force ships as of January 29, 2024, with a projected fleet of 290 ships by FY2030.
In a potential naval conflict, China would need to reposition military assets to its eastern coast and prepare for an invasion, while using its anti-ship firepower to keep US warships at bay. China's arsenal of anti-ship missiles (ASMs) is central to its strategy to deny US forces access to the Western Pacific.
China’s Anti-Ship Missiles (ASM)
China has significantly expanded its anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), sometimes called "carrier killers." Key missiles in China’s arsenal include the YJ-12, YJ-18, YJ-83, DF-21, and DF-26.
YJ-83: A modern addition to China's anti-ship arsenal, deployed on surface ships and multirole aircraft. It’s a smaller, shorter-range missile typically housed in box launchers on Chinese frigates and corvettes.
YJ-18: A cruise missile for anti-ship and land-attack roles, derived from the Russian 3M-54E "Klub" missile, and the only widely deployed ASM that can be launched from vertical launch cells. It’s installed on large surface combatants and submarines.
YJ-12: Compatible with various platforms, including bombers and coastal launchers, the YJ-12 can engage warships from long distances.
DF-26: An Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) that provides high speed and long range, earning the "carrier killer" nickname. It can target beyond aircraft carriers.
DF-21D: A medium-range ballistic missile operational since 2012, designed specifically to target ships at sea, reaching speeds up to Mach 10 during the terminal phase.
China's anti-ship missile capabilities aim to deny US warships access to the region, leveraging Taiwan's proximity to offset American naval dominance.
Taiwan's Strategic Position
As tensions over Taiwan escalate, its strategic position within the "first island chain" becomes crucial. Controlling this link would bolster China's influence in the Western Pacific, challenge US dominance, and give Beijing control over Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing industry. Given Taiwan's role in maritime trade routes and its semiconductor industry, neither the US nor its allies can afford to let Taiwan fall into Beijing's orbit.
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